Pardle

Insights

Short, data-backed takes on the tournament ahead. Updated weekly. No hot air, no hedging.

• R4 bet26 Jul 2026

  Why we bet £1,149 on Hank Lebioda

  The market has him at 60%. Our model has him at 75%. That's the biggest edge we've seen this week — here's exactly how we got there.

• R3 pricing25 Jul 2026

  Exploring Scheffler round score dynamics: 3M Open R3

  Walking the full pricing exercise on Scheffler's over/under 66.5 — field mean, personal edge, course compression, and the mean-vs-median gap that decides where the fair line actually sits.

• R2 forecast24 Jul 2026

  3M Open R2: what the field averages today

  Fitting eight years of pin-by-pin scoring to today's wind, then calibrating against yesterday's field average, points to a course playing softer than the wind suggests.

• R2 preview24 Jul 2026

  3M Open R2 preview: wind, hole bearings, and where the birdies live

  Same wind direction as R1, roughly triple the speed. This is where the R2 pin sheet meets a 20 mph SSW — hole by hole, cluster by cluster.

• Pin analysis22 Jul 2026

  Where the birdies live: reading the 3M Open's pin patterns

  Adjusting eight years of pin-by-pin birdie rates for hole length and wind reveals which flag positions at TPC Twin Cities play harder or easier than they look.

• Course fit21 Jul 2026

  The 3M Open: what course-fit says about TPC Twin Cities

  A ball-flight model that ranks courses by whether they reward bombers or plotters — and where this week lands.