Short, data-backed takes on the tournament ahead. Updated weekly. No hot air, no hedging.
Jeremy Paul is tied second at 11 under and rated 65th of the 70 players left. Across 14,575 player-events, almost none of a hot 36 holes carries into Saturday — which makes his round-3 line the biggest edge on the board.
The market has him at 60%. Our model has him at 75%. That's the biggest edge we've seen this week — here's exactly how we got there.
Walking the full pricing exercise on Scheffler's over/under 66.5 — field mean, personal edge, course compression, and the mean-vs-median gap that decides where the fair line actually sits.
Fitting eight years of pin-by-pin scoring to today's wind, then calibrating against yesterday's field average, points to a course playing softer than the wind suggests.
Same wind direction as R1, roughly triple the speed. This is where the R2 pin sheet meets a 20 mph SSW — hole by hole, cluster by cluster.
Adjusting eight years of pin-by-pin birdie rates for hole length and wind reveals which flag positions at TPC Twin Cities play harder or easier than they look.
A ball-flight model that ranks courses by whether they reward bombers or plotters — and where this week lands.