3M Open R2 preview: wind, hole bearings, and where the birdies live
Same wind direction as R1, roughly triple the speed. This is where the R2 pin sheet meets a 20 mph SSW — hole by hole, cluster by cluster.
Round 1 played to a near-neutral setup at TPC Twin Cities under a soft 5-7 mph southerly. Round 2 is a different animal: the same wind direction, but three times the speed. The Thursday pin drop for R2 is out, and the interaction of those pins with a 20 mph SSW is the whole story of Friday's setup.
The wind forecast — and why the wave split matters
HRRR guidance for Friday over TPC Twin Cities has the wind holding a narrow band from about 200° all day. Same direction as R1, roughly triple the speed, and meaningfully stronger in the afternoon. The AM window (7am-12pm) averages 17 mph from 200°, gusting into the mid-30s. The PM window (1pm-7pm) sits at 21 mph from 200°, gusting to 33. That's a 4 mph delta between the waves — enough to shift expected scoring by roughly a tenth of a stroke per player over 18 holes.
Direction holding steady means holes running roughly N/NW get a tailwind that STRENGTHENS through the afternoon, and holes running S/SW get a headwind that strengthens too. The wave delta doesn't average out to zero; it points in opposite directions on opposite ends of the routing.
Hole bearings — how the wind lands on each approach
The R1 model uses each hole's real compass bearing (approach-leg for par-4s, fairway-to-green for par-5s) from OpenStreetMap way geometry. That bearing gets crossed with the day's wind direction to compute a headwind component per hole, which the regression then converts to expected birdie-rate shift.
The 3M Open's routing is heterogeneous — a few holes point due N, a few due S, most sit somewhere in between. So the same wind that boosts H12 and H18 punishes H7 and H16 on the same round. Six holes matter enough today to sit on either end of the scale.
Playing easier — where to lean birdies
| Hole | Par | Cluster | Rate | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H15 | 4 | C (back-left) | 21% | +9pp 14° tee bearing — the day's cleanest tailwind. Every 5 mph of tailwind trims roughly 2 pp off the effective club, and PM adds another mph on top. |
| H2 | 4 | D (back-right) | 13% | +7pp 354° — nearly due N. The pin shift from R1's front to R2's back adds about 30 yards of approach, but the tailwind gives it all back. Long-hitters win here today. |
| H18 | 5 | D (front-left) | 42% | +6pp par-5 downwind, front pin — a birdie card hole. Cluster D historically hits 42% birdies-or-better; today's conditions push that up. |
| H12 | 5 | B (mid-front, right) | 49% | +4pp 336° full tailwind, but here's the nuance: the R2 pin lands on cluster B, which is one of the harder clusters on this par-5 (five clusters range 49% to 65%). The wind still tips it easier — but the pin itself is working against you. |
| H13 | 3 | G (back-left) | 17% | +3pp Cluster G's historical rate is a hair above the H13 mean (a 6 pp intrinsic residual), and even the SW crosswind can't drag it under water. Small edge — see the reality check below. |
Playing harder — where to fade birdies and back bogey markets
| Hole | Par | Cluster | Rate | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H16 | 4 | A (deep-back, right) | 26% | −20pp The day's biggest defensive setup by a wide margin. 204° full headwind, R1 played 26 yards longer than historical mean, and R2's pin is deep-back-right on a 23-yard-deep green. A bailout short leaves 20+ ft up a slope. The model estimate likely overstates — the honest read is 10 to 14 pp harder than normal — but the direction is not in doubt. |
| H7 | 4 | B (mid-right) | 23% | −9pp 214° — dead into 20 mph. H7 is one of the property's most yardage-sensitive holes, and the wind plus pin cluster stack to make it the toughest par-4 non-forced approach of the day. |
| H11 | 4 | B (back-left) | 14% | −6pp 175° full headwind on the approach plus a back-left tucked pin. Cluster B on this hole runs 14% historically, one of the harder clusters. |
| H6 | 5 | D (deep back) | 43% | −5pp Not the par-5 birdie hole the leaderboard suggests it should be. Cluster D is below the H6 par-5 typical (about 54%), the tailwind is only mild, and R1 was already longer than historical mean. |
| H1 | 4 | B (middle) | 20% | −4pp Cluster B is the third-worst on H1 and the wind offers no meaningful help. Not defensive enough to bet against, but not a birdie hole either. |
What history says — matched-wind parallels
The regression is a model. What actually happened on each hole the last time the wind blew from a similar direction is empirical. Pulling every prior 3M Open round (2019-2025, 28 rounds total) and matching each on headwind component within 4 mph per hole gives a historical anchor for the forecast — the wind that would land on each approach, not just the raw mph on the flag.
For the holes with prior parallels, the empirical read is strong and lands mostly on the model's side:
| Hole | Prior rounds | Matched avg | All-time avg | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H12 (par-5, tailwind) | 9 rounds (10-14 mph tail) | 59% birdies | 55% | +4pp |
| H18 (par-5, tailwind) | 14 rounds (5-11 mph tail) | 45% birdies | 42% | +3pp |
| H2 (par-4, tailwind) | 1 round (14 mph tail, 2024 R3) | 29% birdies | 16% | +14pp |
| H11 (par-4, headwind) | 1 round (14 mph head, 2024 R3) | 9% birdies | 14% | −5pp |
| H9 (par-4, quartering headwind) | 9 rounds (9-14 mph head) | 8% birdies | 10% | −2pp |
Two of today's model calls need adjusting after this reality check:
- H13 empirical anchor is weaker than the model suggests. Fourteen prior rounds with 5-11 mph headwind on H13 averaged 10% birdies vs. the 11% all-time — very close to average, not the mild-easier the cluster-G residual was suggesting. Treat H13 as neutral rather than +EV.
- H6 doesn't get harder in this wind. Nine prior low-wind rounds on H6 (this hole runs 289° — SSW is nearly pure crosswind) actually posted 49% birdies vs. 44% all-time. Cluster D's residual pulled the model too far. H6 is closer to neutral.
Round-total picture
Summing the per-hole birdie-rate deltas across all 18 holes:
- AM wave: roughly 29 pp course-wide vs. a typical R2 — around half a stroke harder per player for the average AM starter.
- PM wave: around 24 pp course-wide — roughly four-tenths of a stroke harder.
- Delta: PM plays about a tenth of a stroke easier than AM despite the extra wind. Counterintuitive, but the tailwind gain on H12 and H18 (par-5s) more than covers the added headwind cost on H7, H11, H16, and H17.
Betting angles — with bettable prices
For each angle: our estimated true probability (built from the matched-wind history and the cluster residual), the fair American odds that implies, and the price at which we'd take it (roughly 10% edge over fair — that's the working threshold for a bet worth firing rather than one worth watching). All backs; no lays.
| Market | Our number | Fair | Bet at |
|---|---|---|---|
| H15 birdie prop (AM wave) 21% cluster + strong tailwind on a due-N tee shot. The model's cleanest single-hole birdie tilt. | roughly 27% | +270 | +300 or bigger |
| H12 birdie prop Cluster B is the harder of the big-sample clusters on this par-5 (49% base), but the tailwind wins the argument. Nine matched-wind rounds averaged 59% — anchor sits mid-50s. | roughly 55% | −125 | +100 (even money) or bigger |
| H2 birdie prop Base rate 13%. The single closest matched-wind round posted 29%. We haircut for a one-round sample but the lift is real — call it roughly a doubling. | roughly 25% | +300 | +350 or bigger |
| H18 birdie prop Fourteen matched-wind rounds averaged 45%. Solid, thickly-priced market — the number here is trustworthy to within a couple of points. | roughly 45% | +120 | +140 or bigger |
| H16 bogey-or-worse prop Base bogey-or-worse rate around 20% typical. Today — 20 mph headwind on the property's toughest short par-4 with a deep-back pin on a 23-yard-deep green — pushes that into the low-mid 30s. This is the cleanest back-side H16 angle if the market's available. Biggest single-hole edge on the card. | roughly 33% | +200 | +230 or bigger |
Where this analysis can be wrong
Three caveats worth sitting with before you fire live:
- R2 tee-block yardages aren't public yet. The tour publishes the scorecard baseline (the R1 setup) but typically shifts individual hole yardages by 14 yards or so for R2, with occasional 25+ yard moves. This analysis uses R1 yardages as the R2 proxy. If the tour moves H16 forward or H2 back for R2, those specific verdicts shift.
- The regression's wind coefficients were fit on rounds mostly played under 10 mph. Extrapolating to 20 mph likely inflates the magnitudes — the H16 model estimate is probably closer to 10 to 14 pp harder in reality, not 20. Rank order stays intact; specific pp values are noisier.
- Wind is treated as a round average. A gusty afternoon that swings 15° for one group can move a single hole a few pp vs. the sample-average estimate above. The model knows the wave, not the moment.
If you want the underlying data, the course & pin guide surfaces the per-cluster birdie rates by hole, and the tee-time vs. score page shows how each wave has actually scored, refreshing as the round completes.